Bro, good for you doing quotes...but it's 10 pm on Thursday night and it's too late this year for me to go through the last four seasons of a tv show finding hilarious quotes for our reader (Hi again mom!). Plus if it was Big Bang Theory or Cincinnati Reds quotes mom wouldn't even get them.
So, instead, it's time I just do this old school and throw out my Derby Tiers.
Tier 4 AKA I don't like them, not at all. (post position order)
Gray Magician - More like gray slowician.
Plus Que Parfait - Named after a lame dessert I guess
Cutting Humor - Cutting isn't funny, and neither is this horse
Master Fencer - I don't think a second tier Japanese runner can win the Derby
Tier 3 AKA I don't like them, but I don't completely hate them. (post position order)
War of Will - Bad draw, awful last race, not particularly fast in his good races
Tax - Bad draw, dream set-up last, pedigree to run all day so maybe stumbles into third with a dream trip.
Vekoma - Don't buy him going 10 furlongs
Haikal - He's probably a tier 4 horse with his hoof issues, but I'll leave him here.
Long Range Toddy - Tier 4 in the slop, if the track comes up fast somehow he can maybe bounce back off the Arkansas Derby debacle
Spinoff - Philip like him some, but I just can't see it.
Country House - His maiden win is the only time he's looked good all year, has just been a total plodder in stakes races
Bodexpress - Probably my favorite of this group, but can't put a maiden any higher.
Tier 2 AKA Maybe there's a chance (order of preference last to first)
Tacitus - He's done nothing wrong. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He's gone from Mott's third best Derby shot, to his best Derby shot. His daddy won the Wood before finishing ninth in the Derby as the second choice, and I don't think the apple fell far from the tree.
Improbable - I am much less bullish on him than my brother is. I think he's Baffert's third best entry in this race and seriously question his ability to go 10 furlongs, oh and Country House is the best horse he's beaten.....
Roadster - Another of the Baffert trio. I think he's talented, but like Improbable, I don't think 10 furlongs is going to be his wheelhouse.
By My Standards - The talk of the backstretch with his AM workouts and easily the best horse out of the Louisiana Derby IMO. Serious pedigree questions, but have to use some.
Win Win Win - Tons of trouble last out in the Blue Grass, I think he was the best horse in there. He got hung super wide in the Tampa Bay Derby or he might've threatened Tacitus that day. He'll be a big price, he can hit the board.
Tier 1 AKA I'm tired and these are my picks (order of preference last to first)
Code of Honor - Quite simply, no horse in this field would have caught Maximum Security after he went a half mile in 48 and 4. Not a single damn one of them. And, I think CoH's Fountain of Youth is even better than it looks, he hit the lead early and kind of pulled himself up a bit. He's the best closer in this race, IMO. He's better than Tacitus, and I think he's better than Win Win Win. My only reservation is how quick the pace will be and if he will get much of a set-up.
Game Winner - I'm convinced this horse is Baffert's best chance at this year's Derby. He's bred to love the distance. Last out, he went way wide at Santa Anita or he probably beats Roadster there. He was hands down the best two-year-old in the country last year, talent is not an issue. Honestly, I'm not sure why you think Improbable possibly has more talent than Game Winner, at no point in Improbable's career has he been faster than Game Winner. Of my top three picks, Code of Honor needs a hot pace to win, Maximum Security needs a slower pace to win, with Game Winner it doesn't matter how the pace sets up.
Maximum Security - Regardless of my praises of Game Winner, Maximum Security is my top pick in this year's Derby. No horse has ever been within 3 1/2 lengths of him at the finish and he has the top two speed figures in the race...oh, and he's gonna be like the fifth or sixth choice. You can't let the fastest horse in the Derby go off sixth choice and not bet them. Yes, if Vekoma, War of Will, and Tax are all hell bent on making the lead and end up going 46 and 3, he'll almost certainly lose. But, I don't expect that to happen. I think he's going to offer the best value in the race.
With all that said, it doesn't seem like we're really on the same page this year (Outside of Maximum Security, somehow). That can't be a good thing. I still can't believe Improbable is your top pick...wow. The next couple days are gonna be interesting...
Oh, and since it's almost Friday, a few quick thoughts about the Oaks card, going to keep them quick.
1. Newspaperofrecord in the sixth race might be the most talented horse running at Churchill Downs this weekend, she could be an absolute superstar. Her two year old season was ridiculous. She should be a very short priced winner.
2. McKinzie is another likely winner, and another likely very short price in the seventh race.
3. A couple of more decently priced runners I think will be tough are Valdolobo, the 9 horse in race 4 if they're on the turf, and Queen of Beas, the 4 horse in race 5.
4. The Oaks is wide open. Horses like Choclate Kisses (20/1), Lady Apple (20/1), and Jeltrin (15/1) all have a shot at being close at the finish.
No comments:
Post a Comment