I love that this is devolving into a discussion on the merits (or lack thereof) of Shagaf....a horse most people aren't even talking about. And, here he is, the star of the freaking show.
I get that his "bad" Wood Memorial was as fast as his Gotham win. But, that win was pretty good and was only his third start. He got in some tight spots there and ran down a decent lone speed horse on a track that carried everything home on the lead. EIGHT of the ten races on the card were won wire to wire. The other race was won by a horse that was second at the 2nd call. Shagaf was 4th at the second call. He was the only horse on the card that closed all day. That has to count for something.
In his first three starts Shagaf was 1 1/2 lengths off a 46:4 opening half, a neck behind a 46:4 half, and 2 lengths behind a 47 flat half. In the Wood he was 11 lengths off a 46:4 half.......One of these things doesn't seem to fit....Ortiz was pushing him from the word go and getting no response. It's way too bad to believe. How does he suddenly get 2 seconds slower than his previous three starts through the first half mile? I get that his pedigree suggests he should like the mud, but empirical evidence suggests to me that he doesn't. It's Occam's Razor bro, the most logical explanation is that he hated the mud.
So, that's once again my case for Shagaf. Look, I get it, he's not fast. But, against a slow group I think he has much more reason to improve than most. You say Exaggerator only had one real chance to run fast? I would claim that Shagaf has never really had a legit opportunity to run his best.
So, you know where my head is right now. I've basically got the group I could use as top horses narrowed down to Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Destin, and Shagaf. Mor Spirit could sneak into that discussion for me. But, right now, I can't see anything else I'm really wanting to use as an A or B (unless we have to use Nyquist as a B on talent alone...or we decide we like one of these closers more than all the other closers that look exactly alike).
Obviously, I know you disagree on Shagaf. Is there something else you like that I haven't picked up on?
No comments:
Post a Comment