Derby 2016 Discussion - Part 15 - Phil - Two Minutes in the Valley

Just to quickly hit on your thoughts on the card… We agree too much on the stakes races.  This is never good.  For the Humana Distaff, we’ll end up talking ourselves into Wavell Avenue, which is likely the correct move.  CD Handicap I agree there too, but Holy Boss could steal it on the lead.  And yes, the Turf Classic looks like the exact type of race where we go all out against the two favorites b/c they have a ton of legitimate questions, and then one of them wins.  Bolo was the one I was looking at as well – 1-1/8 miles hits him right in the head.

Ok, now the Derby itself.  The main event.  The post you all really came to read.  As usual, we’ll steal liberally from Bill Simmons and each compare the field to quotes or characters from a popular TV show.  I’ve stared at the race probably longer than I needed to, and my witty weapon of choice this year involves these guys….

Also, for each horse, I’ll include in parentheses what I think are the fair odds for each horse.  In effect, those are the odds I think the horse should be in.  Ok, let’s get to it!

Richard: Since when do we have an intern program?

Erlich: We don’t.  And when Keith finds that out, it’s going to be a very valuable business lesson to him.

For Laoban (999,999/1) & Cherry Wine (999,999/1), who are stuck on the also eligible list. Guys, no horse draws in off the also eligible list.  Just pack it up and head to Baltimore for the Preakness now and save yourself the extra van ride.

Richard: Am I not dressed formally enough?  Should I zip up the hoodie before the meeting?

For Trojan Nation (199/1), Oscar Nominated (199/1), Lani (199/1), & Majesto (199/1).  You all do not belong, and we knew it the moment we laid eyes on you.  There’s the door.  Good luck running through it in under 2 minutes 10 seconds.

Jared: If I use you as references, can I count on you to say nice things about me?  Be honest.

Guilfoyle: Do you want me to be honest or nice?

For Tom’s Ready (99/1), who I really want to just throw on the trashpile.  However, he’s trained by Dallas Stewart, who has an uncanny ability to have bad closers run 2^nd in the Derby.  Tom’s Ready has run 9 times – 1 win, 4 second place finishes.  It’s almost destiny.

Erlich: Richard, I know that you look at me and see a guy who has it all figured out.

Erlich does not have it all figured out, and neither does Brody’s Cause (99/1).  Sure he won the Blue Grass, but I remain unimpressed by his lack of talent.

Guilfoyle: He’s not gonna do shit.  He’s a coder.  By definition, we’re all pussies.

For both Mo Tom (99/1) and Whitmore (49/1), both closers on the slow-ish side that look like they could take some money just b/c people aren’t totally sure who to bet.  I don’t see it ending well for either of them.

Attorney: Do you have any skill at all, other that magically failing your way to the top?

Big Head: I have a boat.

For Gun Runner (49/1), who is 2-for-2 in Louisiana and somehow ended the prep season earning more Derby qualifying points than any other horse.  He’s just slow though.  His top Beyer is a 91, slower than even Trojan Nation’s top.  He’s had a far better prep season than he’s ever deserved, and I don’t see the magic continuing.

Erlich: Ask me what 9 times F is.  It’s Fleventy-Five.

For Shagaf (33/1), but really more for David thinking he’s answered the big question of who to bet in the Derby with his answer being this horse.  It’s pretty much nonsense.

Erlich: What?  Revenue?  No, no, no, no, no.  No.  If you show revenue, people will ask “How much?”  But if you have no revenue, you can say you’re pre-revenue.  You’re a pure potential play.  It’s not about how much you earn, it’s about what you’re worth.  And who’s worth the most?  Companies that lose money.  Pinterest, Snapchat… No revenue.  Amazon has lost money every f**king quarter for the last 20 f**king years, and that Bezos mother**ker is the king.

For Creator (19/1), who was way more interesting until he actually got a good ride from Ricardo Santana and won the Arkansas Derby with a solid but not great 96 Beyer.  I feel like I know what his ceiling is now, and it isn’t enough to win the Derby.

Richard: I always knew I was missing something, and then when someone explained the concept of “game,” I remember very distinctly thinking “That’s what I don’t have.”

For My Man Sam (19/1), who I do kind of like, but I can’t totally explain why I can’t get on board him even finishing in the top half of this group.  He ran a sneaky good race two back in an allowance field against eventual Wood Memorial 2^nd choice Matt King Coal when he had no pace to run at.  Then he ran a really good 2^nd in the Blue Grass, probably running better than Brody’s Cause.  But he just doesn’t quite look fast enough, and that big number he ran in the allowance two back was in no way validated by his or Matt King Coal’s next starts.

Erlich: You just brought piss to a shit fight!

The greatest scene ever committed to television is for Mor Spirit (19/1).  I think he’s ok, but I really have trouble seeing how this ends well for him.  He feels like the type of horse we use more heavily than we should b/c he feels like a “safe” play.  Has one of those really ever worked out?  You’re really only betting him off his solid San Felipe effort, which was just a bizarre race given how Exaggerator rushed up early and Danzing Candy just somehow ran ‘em off their feet.  We’ll probably use him, but I don’t feel great about it.

Gavin: F**k!

Audious: Invalid Command.

Gavin: F**k!

For Suddenbreakingnews (19/1), who I think has some talent.  However, you can just tell he’s going to try and do what he’s tried to do every start of this Derby season – sit dead last and try to circle the entire field.  That doesn’t work, especially in a Derby without much early speed.

Erlich: If you’re not an asshole, this company dies.

For Danzing Candy (19/1), who breaks from post 20 and only has one plan in this race – break quickly, immediately veer over to the rail as fast as possible, and hang on.  I could see him messing something up early, but he has no choice.  He must be used by virtue of being the only real early speed horse in the entire race, but man it’s tough to feel good about it.

Gavin: I don’t know about you people, but I don’t want to live in a world where someone else makes the world a better place better than we do.

For Outwork (19/1), who I think would really want to do what Danzing Candy is going to do, but can’t quite do it well enough.  Outwork feels like a horse that needs the lead, but I doubt his connections are going to be willing to commit to it.  I don’t think it ends particularly well for him, but he must be considered if he can all the sudden prove he can sit off the pace.

Richard: Jobs was a poser.  He didn’t even code.

Could this be for anyone but Nyquist (15/1)?  We’ve talked our Nyquist hatred to death at this point, but just to put a bow on it.  Nyquist is a nice horse, but he’s not a Derby horse.  He’s going to have a good season when he finally drops back to running sprint to mile races and not pretending he’s a 1-1/4 mile horse. 

Russ Hanneman: I’m that much closer to re-billionizing!

For Mohaymen (12/1), who is far too similar to the accidental billionaire Russ Hanneman.  Mohaymen always struck as the type horse that was a Derby favorite by proxy.  I know you can spin the case for him that had he run “his race” in the Florida Derby, he wins it.  But, the Florida Derby wasn’t much of a field.  “His race” can win the Florida Derby, but I don’t know if it can win the Kentucky Derby.  He needs a big step forward Saturday, and others just seem more likely to take that step.

Richard: I have a meeting with Gavin Belson.  He wants to talk about Pied Piper.

Erlich: I own 10% of Pied Piper.

Richard: You said it was a shitty idea.

Erlich: It WAS a shitty idea.  I don’t know what it is now.

For Destin (5/1), who remains one of the biggest puzzles in this race.  On the plus side, he’s run two of the fastest preps so far this season and he has a running style that looks to set him up perfectly for this race.  On the other hand, he’s never really run a step outside of his two races at Tampa and he’s off an eight week layoff, which is about three weeks longer than you’d probably like.  There’s so much value here at his 15/1 morning line that I think you just have to say he’s a horse getting more talented more quickly than the rest of the field and use him heavily in any bets.

Erlich: We are trending up, boys!  We are trending up!

For Exaggerator (9/2), who looks to be peaking at the right time.  There’s definitely questions abound given that he’s going to likely try to close from far back, but he’s just faster than this group on paper.  It’s really hard for me to believe that he doesn’t figure in to the finish barring some horrendous trouble, which is unfortunately possible for a horse like him.  I also think Battaglia’s 8/1 morning line isn’t happening here.  I’m thinking he’s closer to 5/1 by post time.