Yeah, we can take a little reprieve from the Derby until post positions get drawn tomorrow evening. That gives you some time to realize how amazing Shagaf truly is.
The Oaks card is posted and boy is it a doozy! Actually, I just wanted to write that because it sounded funny in my head. But, really, it's a pretty good card. It looks fairly chalky to me early (i.e. favorites gon' win), but later in the day there's some real chances for big prices.
The lock of the weekend? Carina Mia in The Eight Belles (7th race). This filly is a freak of nature. She would have been my Oaks pick. She may have been my Derby pick. I would be astounded if she lost this race. On a fair track she wins easily, on a speed favoring track she wins by a dozen. If she somehow loses avoid every other speed horse at all costs for the rest of the weekend.
The Pick 4 ending in the Oaks will be tough. The Turf Sprint (race 8) is crazy competitive. Power Alert won this race last year and may be a little price after running bad at Keeneland, but he ran bad at Keeneland last year too. Hootenany is back in the US and has serious talent, he can be a major factor. So can about 5 others in here. This looks like a race where we go deep and hope to get lucky and catch a price.
The Alysheba features Cat Burglar, a horse Victor Espinoza (you know, the Triple Crown winning jockey) told me was a lock last year on the Derby undercard....he lost by 7 lengths that day. That was fun. This is another fairly wide open race, I'll be interested to see morning line's, but Eagle and Noble Bird kind of stand out to me as the two horses that could sit just off the pace and run down the speed late.
The Edgewood goes off right before the Oaks and Catch a Glimpse figures to be tough to beat.
The Oaks itself is a solid race. But, it definitely lost a lot of it's luster when Songbird was scratched. She would have been an obvious favorite not only in the Oaks, but would have been in the Derby as well if they had pointed her there. That leaves Rachel's Valentina as the morning line favorite, and I guess she's the horse to beat. She got caught late by Weep No More in the Ashland, but that was her first start since October 31st and she may have needed one. If she improves off that she will be tough. But, there are a few other usable horses in here.
Go Maggie Go is intriguing anywhere near her 12/1 ML, she's 2 for 2 and has won both starts easily. I think a lot of people will discount Weep No More's Ashland, but she is undefeated around 2 turns and I expect her to be a longer price than her 9/2 ML. She looks like a horse people will possibly dismiss calling the Ashland a fluke, I think she might be legit, but the pace might not be quick enough to set up her run.
Maybe there aren't that many usable horses in the Oaks. Anyone standing out at all to you? Overall, I'm not seeing too many big prices to love on the card after my initial glance through.
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