Yes, I think Shagaf's Gotham was probably as good as a 92-95 type Beyer race. If he gets that number he is on par with most of this field....and that was his third start. Plus, he's one of the few in here bred to get better going longer. I think he has potential to run a new top, and if he runs a new top off a 93 type number he's good enough to win.
With Danzing Candy it really feels like you're just getting angry and picking a horse you don't really like because you want to like a crazy horse too. Sorry that I have all these awesome reasons to like Shagaf that you didn't think of. Shh bby is ok. Take some deep breaths and relax.
This is a very unsurprising pick because Danzing Candy looks exactly like every other horrible cheap speed horse you've ever wanted to bet on Derby day. He looks like Wildcat Red did (18th in 2014), like Itsmyluckyday did (15th in 2013), and like Trinniberg did (17th in 2012). Should I go back further? Note - I'm not sure if you liked Trinniberg, but I think you made sure we used him.
Comparing Danzing to War Emblem and California Chrome is definitely a huge stretch. War Emblem had just run a 110+ Beyer winning the Illinois Derby (RIP) by 10 or so. California Chrome was coming off a 107 & 106 or something in his final two starts which were both wins by open lengths, and he didn't need the lead. Meanwhile, in Danzing Candy's final prep he got beat by 13 1/4 lengths and was crawling in the last quarter mile.
There is no valid comparison you can use to cast this horse in a positive light, every horse that has ever been a need the lead type that got much slower in their final prep has run awful on Derby day. There are all sorts of years where you can find a bad closer that hits the board in the Derby (Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, Dullahan, Ice Box, Mine That Bird, etc.), but name the last bad speed horse to hit the board...it was probably 2002 when the race ran War Emblem - Proud Citizen who were 1-2 the entire way. Since then here's all the speed that's hit the board:
2015 - AP, Firing Line, and Dortmund were 1-2-3 the whole way. Firing Line may have been cheapish speed.
2014 - California Chrome sat 3rd
2012 - Bodemeister, a freak, couldn't hang on.
2007 - Hard Spun, also freaky, couldn't hang on
2004 - Lion Heart
2003 - Peace Rules (sat 2nd)
I'm pretty sure every one of those horses won their final prep race. And every single one except for Firing Line was under 8/1.
Now, with all that said, if there has EVER been a year for a cheap speed horse to get a piece, this could be it. I don't think he should be a B tier horse, but I could definitely see him as a C.
Ok, so now I know you like Exaggerator and Danzing Candy. It seems like you've kind of locked yourself into liking Mor Spirit as well, because it would make no sense at all for you not to since he has beaten one of those two in his last two preps. You also still seem to like Destin despite not mentioning him in your last 2,000 words or so. Aside from them I feel like you hate everything.
Once again, I like Shagaf and maybe Exaggerator as A's. Mohaymen and Destin I could MAYBE be talked into. But, I was really unimpressed with Destin's last work and I don't buy that he can run back to his TB Derby off the lay-off.
Who else can we like some? Should we go ahead and accept that Mor Spirit is a B that neither of us like making a B? Is one of these closers better than the others for some reason I'm not seeing? Is Majesto maybe improving? Could we like Outwork at all?
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