Oh here it is, a tradition unlike any other... The Derby thread! This is something like the 8th year David and I have been doing this, and it tends to meander for about 12,000 words. It may not be entertaining, but at least it's long. As usual, I set the table, we go back and forth about the race generally until Thursday night (May 5th this year) when David closes us out.
For starters, a recap of last year. Last year, we both gushed over how stacked the field was, talked a lot about Materiality (is he retired?), & ended up betting him & American Pharoah heavy. Of course, we ended up with a measily $100 tri for all our trouble, and blew that on the last race. Moving on forever.
Next, so you know the names I'm about to rattle off, here's a list of the Derby contenders this year.
Last year, like I said, we had a great Derby field. And that bore out as great fields usually do... A predictable trifecta and low payouts across the board. So while it's nice to watch a good field, it's much more fun and exciting to bet a bad field.... AND HOLY SHIT DO WE HAVE A STINKER ON OUR HANDS THIS YEAR!
Last year, each region was either dominated by one horse or saw a horse emerge as a plausible star. This year has been a complete mess. Mohaymen was the defacto early favorite for quite a while, but he was pretty slow on paper, only managing to muster back-to-back Beyer Speed Figures (or just "Beyers" for short) of 95 while winning The Holy Bull & The Fountain of Youth, two of the major prep races in Florida. I don't know how many people were ever sold on Mohaymen - personally, I was not. The final Florida prep, the Florida Derby, was billed as a showdown between Mohaymen and Nyquist. Mohaymen essentially no-showed the race, finishing a distant fourth. Nyquist went on to romp pretty easily. His winning Beyer? A 94. We're not getting any faster here.
After that win, Nyquist became the heavy favorite for the Derby, and on reputation, it makes sense. He's 7-for-7 lifetime, he won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and was the champion 2yo, and he's an easy 2-for-2 this year. I get WHY he's going to be 7/2 or even less. However, unlike past big favorites like American Pharoah or California Chrome, there's a problem here...
HE'S NOT FAST.
Well, he's not at two turns at least. Nyquist ran one of the fastest preps of the season in the San Vicente, but that's a seven furlong race. It's like assuming a sprinter who was fast at 200 meters can also run just as fast at 800 meters. Nyquist did win the Florida Derby, but once Mohaymen showed he was not going to fire his best shot, it was clearly a walkover at that point. Pretty much all you need to know about the quality of the remaining field is that the 2nd place runner in the Florida Derby, Majesto, needed five starts just to get his first win and will probably be one of the two or three longest shots on the board next Saturday. Also, visually, Nyquist was weaving in and out, usually a good indication that a horse is tired. The Florida Derby is run at 1 1/8 miles. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles. That's not good. Nyquist's fastest two turn Beyer is that Florida Derby win with a 94. I believe seven others in this field have run faster than that at two turns, many much faster. Nyquist is a good horse. Nyquist can probably win the race. But at the price, he's one of the worst values I think I've ever seen in a Derby.
Now, one positive I didn't mention for Nyquist is pace. Nyquist likes to sit close to the pace. In my estimation, this is a Derby without a whole lot of early speed, a stark contrast from most years. It seems like Danzing Candy is definitely the pace-setter, followed by Outwork, Nyquist, and Destin close behind, and after that.... I got nothing. The race is full of deep closers, something you just don't see in a typical Derby. In general, I like to bet horses closer to the pace anyway, and we've found that horses closer to the pace tend to have the advantage anyway.
All of it actually makes me lean a little bit in favor of Destin right now. He should get a good trip, he's going to be over 10/1, and he's fast. His Tampa Bay Derby win was 2nd fastest two turn prep this year. He ran a 101 there and beat Outwork, who went on to win the Wood Memorial, which is generally one of the strongest races of the prep season. The big worry with Destin is that he hasn't run since mid-March. Most horses run their final prep 4-6 weeks prior to the Derby, and Destin hasn't run in 8 weeks. However, given the trend of how much less horses race anyway, his talent, and his expected odds, that's a measured risk I'm willing to take. I have others I like, but I've gone on too long already. I'll save my Exaggerator love for a later post.
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