That's such a great It's Always Sunny clip. I can't wait to peak all over this Derby.
Fair point about the madness here, and that's one thing I failed to mention earlier. Good Derbies are fun to watch. Bad Derbies are fun to bet. Why are they fun to bet? B/c the pay crazy prices. However, I'd temper embracing the madness fully.
Let's look at some history here. Most Derbies fall into one of three categories: Good, Bad, or Bad with One Juggernaut. "Bad with One Juggernaut" years are years where the field sucked, but one horse was so overwhelmingly good, it practically forced your betting strategy. Below is a quick summary by year & category of what the $1 trifecta paid and what the odds were of the top 3 finishers. I'll go back to 2001, the first year they got rid of entries. For Juggernaut years, I'll include the finishing position of the Juggernaut...
Good
2015: Trifecta paid $101; Odds were 3/1 - 9/1 - 4/1
2007: $220; 4/1 - 10/1 - 5/1
2006: $5,709; 6/1 - 30/1 - 16/1
2004: $494; 7/2 - 4/1 - 20/1
2003: $332; 13/1 - 5/2 - 5/1
Bad
2013: $3,462; 5/1 - 35/1 - 6/1
2011: $1,976; 20/1 - 8/1 - 9/1
2010: $1,169; 8/1 - 11/1 - 12/1
2009: $20,750; 50/1 - 6/1 - 19/1
2002: $9,187; 20/1 - 20/1 - 8/1
Bad with One Juggernaut
2014: $1,712; 5/2 - 37/1 - 8/1 (Juggernaut was California Chrome - 1st)
2012: $1,533; 15/1 - 4/1 - 12/1 (Bodemeister - 2nd)
2008: $1,723; 2/1 - 13/1 - 27/1 (Big Brown - 1st)
2005: $66,567; 50/1 - 71/1 - 9/2 (Afleet Alex - 3rd or Bellamy Road - 7th)
2001: $6,119; 11/1 - 50/1 - 5/1 (Point Given - 5th)
Two things stand out here. First, to the non-shock of us, the good fields proved to be pretty formful and result in nothing payouts while the bad fields always went over $1,000. But, even the bad fields had something the good fields had... at least one plausible contender under 10/1 hit the board. The winner might be something crazy, but for the most part, a good horse always sneaks into the tri. Even 2005, when the tri paid $66k, 2nd choice Afleet Alex (who went on to win the Preakness & Belmont) snuck into the tri.
So I think if you want to talk strategy and embracing the madness, this feels like a year where you can take a stand with one or two horses, force them to finish SOMEWHERE in the tri, and then go super-deep in the other two spots. Save Mine that Bird in 2008, I'd argue every winner in this group was at least haveable, so its not like you need to go 18 deep on top.
This year actually feels a lot like 2001 to me. I'd classify this Derby as "Bad," but I think most other people would classify it as "Bad with One Juggernaut," with Nyquist as said Juggernaut. I don't see it. We unloaded against Point Given, and if you hadn't decided to save $9 on a trifecta for whatever stupid reason, we would have had that $6,119 trifecta that year after Monarchos won. Monarchos, of course, is the last horse you, me, and our dad all loved.
Dad's horse this year, at least right now? Destin.
Regarding Destin, it's taken me a while, but he actually reminds me a little bit of Firing Line from last year. Both came in off longer than you'd want layoffs (Firing Line at 6 weeks was a little easier to stomach) and won preps that aren't traditionally considered top-tier preps. Of course, Firing Line gave Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah all he could handle in the stretch.
Ugh, I still haven't gotten to Exaggerator. Maybe next time. Or maybe I'll just keep teasing it for the entire discussion and never get around to it.
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