I know you love to rail against the post draw every year. So now time for my yearly rant: the Morning Line. For those not in the know, the morning line odds are the odds you see listed in the program. These aren't the real odds - mainly the oddsmaker's approximation of the odds. The odds ultimately represent what percentage of the pool is bet on each horse, and then adjust for the portion of the betting the track keeps so they can turn a profit (called the "takeout"). So the takeout at Churchill Downs is 17.5%, meaning the odds, when converted to a percentage, should add up to around 120%. Battaglia's morning line, converted to a percentage, adds up to 133%. In other words, he created an impossible line. There are several reasons for this, mostly rounding and not wanting to piss off owners by putting their horses at the 99/1 they should be, but it still annoys the shit out of me every year.
Now, without further ado, here's the real morning line and my "value line." The value line represents what I think each horse's odds should be in a world where there is no takeout, so the odds actually add up to 100%...
I might be a little high on Firing Line and a little low on Carpe Diem, but that's the only adjustments I could be talked into.
Ok, back to your points David. I think I agree with all your thoughts on the odds. Frosted under 10/1 would not surprise me in the least.
As for the undercard, it's really damn tough. Bayern feels a lot safer than Judy The Beauty if you ask me, but yes both are vulnerable. Every race is hard. I'm terrified.
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