Saturday, April 25, 2015

Derby Discussion - David Part 3 "Game of Run for the Roses"



My brother and I grew up doing a few main things: playing videogames, watching basketball, horse racing, and a lot of TV, and arguing. That’s about it. Now, as you obviously know, we write these Derby discussions because this pertains to two of our main interests: horse racing and arguing. But, we like to bring in some pop culture while we’re at it because:

 A) We’re bored and like TV
 B) It has a very small chance of being interesting to the two people reading this
C) We want to, screw you for judging me.

So, this year, for our Derby horse comparisons we decided to bring in the pop culture phenomenon that is Game of Thrones. Basically, we’re drawing comparisons between Derby entrants and Game of Thrones characters. This way, if you have no idea who to bet on Derby day, but you really like Jon Snow, problem solved…just bet the Jon Snow comparison and you’re done! We’re doing this for you dammit, why won’t you love me!? Why don’t you look at me like you used to!? Whoa, sorry, going off the rails there…anyway, here we go:

International Star is Tyrion Lannister: All International Star has done in Louisiana is win races. He won all three major Louisiana preps, yet no one really sees him as a prime contender. Meanwhile, in Westeros, Tyrion did everything to help the people around him, and no one ever cared.

Dortmund is Daenerys Targaryen: Dany is an apt comparison for a few horses in here. All she does is win, just like the top three or four contenders for this Derby. But, I went with Dortmund since, like Dany, he’s been nothing but impressive and no one really questions him as a prime contender to the Iron Throne…I mean to the garland of roses.

Carpe Diem is Cersei Lannister: Since the start of GoT Cersei has been right at the top of the pecking order. Plenty of comparisons here. Cersei hails from the great Lannister family and was always meant to be a ruler. Carpe Diem is a son of super stallion Giant’s Causeway and was purchased for $1.6M as a 2YO. Cersei became Queen and then mother to kings. Carpe Diem as a racehorse has won four of his five starts including some of the biggest Derby preps. But, just a Cersei’s power seems like it could collapse at any moment, so does Carpe Diem’s place as potentially the best of his generation. I don’t expect Carpe Diem to be in the top 4 on Derby day, just like I don’t expect Cersei to be at the top much longer.

American Pharoah is Jamie Lannister: Jamie Lannister is GoT’s golden boy. He is the Lannister heir that has the strength and fighting prowess to match his heritage. Sure, now he’s missing a hand, and he was captured for a while. But, Jamie is the one Lannister that seems destined to remain great. Pharoah is a similar golden boy, he’s crushing his opponents, he’s charismatic, he’s a star.

Frosted is Stannis Baratheon: Stannis was just kind of an afterthought on GoT, sure he had a witch on his side, but he’d never really won anything…until he went north and crushed the wildlings. Frosted matches this to a T, he was a contender without a marquee win, until he went north to New York and crushed the Wood Memorial.

Mubtaahij is Khal Drogo: Mubtaahij has been off in a foreign desert (Dubai) dominating everyone that’s crossed his path which makes him an obvious comparison to the great Khal Drogo who dominated the lands beyond the Free Cities. The question is, how will Mubtaahij do in Westeros? No one really knows for sure…

Materiality is Jon Snow: I’ll save you another Materiality rant. But, as Jon Snow is the bastard son of Eddard Stark, so is Materiality the bastard entrant from the Todd Pletcher barn. Everyone is watching his legitimate brother, but Materiality is the horse with a chance to really make waves.

El Kabeir is Melisandre: Calvin Borel has been named to ride El Kabeir, like Melisandre, he is a witch. There is no other way to explain how such an average to below average jockey has had so much Derby success. Don’t be surprised if a shadow man baby pops out of his loins in the middle of the race.

Upstart is Petyr Baelish: No one is talking about Upstart. No one seems to think he really has any real power. As Littlefinger deals in the shadows and behind the backs of his enemies, so is Upstart sneaking into the Derby somewhat unnoticed by the major players. The only horse to cross the wire in front of him this year is Materiality, ignore at your own peril.

Firing Line is Bran Stark: Bran is wandering around God knows where with a giant named Hodor. People like him, but no one really knows what the hell’s going on with him. This is Firing Line-ish. Firing Line won the Sunland Derby by 18 lengths or so, he’s definitely kind of cool, but he’s tough to gauge.

War Story is Theon Greyjoy: Look, this is pretty simple. War Story is the only gelding in the field, Theon is also a gelding, in much more dramatic fashion. That’s it, that’s the whole comparison.

Tencendur is Bronn: Tencendur has been in all of the New York preps, he’s shown ability, but is he really a player on the grand stage? Probably not. This is very similar to Bronn who is always there, but never really a threat to wear a throne.

Bolo is Samwell: You kind of like them, but let’s be real, they’re not actual players.

Itsaknockout is Gilly: Itsaknockout has never crossed the wire first in a stakes race. He’s also never even run a 90+ Beyer number. Much like Gilly, I’m looking at him and wondering why the hell we’re wasting our time thinking about him.

Far Right, Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho, and Keen Ice are The Wildlings: None of them have run close enough to possibly be a threat to win this race…they’re just kind of in here messing with things.

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