https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oomCIXGzsR0
Anyway...
I do get the positives with Shagaf. There was an obvious track bias on Gotham day. How many lengths was that worth? Two? Three? It's extremely tough to quantify this stuff. Let's say he airs in the Gotham on an unbiased day and runs something like a 93. That feels reasonable, right? Now, the Wood. Really, I think he was at the better part of the pace for the Wood. The Wood fractions were faster than advertised given that the track was slower that day (typical for a sloppy track) and the speed - a horse with the great name of Matt King Coal - totally fell apart as the 3/1 second choice. Had Shagaf been where he usually was, I don't know if he fires that day.
This feels like a horse that's outclassed and, if you try to correct for all the "trouble" he's had, still ends up right around the Gun Runners of the world in terms of speed.
Once again, you have managed to careen us off a cliff into a maze of absurd logic and crappy horse grandstanding. And we have this little game every year, where we play chicken with one bad horse each that we want to include heavily in our bets. You want Shagaf? Fine, I want Danzing Candy. Danzing Candy is the controlling speed of this race, and you can make the case for him in his last start that you can for Shagaf - he hated the muddy track in the Santa Anita Derby and he tired far too quickly from it. He's also one of three horses in this race to run a 100+ Beyer going two turns. And I get the pedigree issues too. He's not bred for 1 1/4 miles. You know who else wasn't bred for this distance?
Him...
or him.
If you're going to force us to add a horse to the bet that probably can't win, how about we include one that we'll at least be able to watch for the first 90 seconds of the race?!
Monday, May 2, 2016
Sunday, May 1, 2016
Derby 2016 Discussion - Part 8 (David) - Shagaf The Chain!
I love that this is devolving into a discussion on the merits (or lack thereof) of Shagaf....a horse most people aren't even talking about. And, here he is, the star of the freaking show.
I get that his "bad" Wood Memorial was as fast as his Gotham win. But, that win was pretty good and was only his third start. He got in some tight spots there and ran down a decent lone speed horse on a track that carried everything home on the lead. EIGHT of the ten races on the card were won wire to wire. The other race was won by a horse that was second at the 2nd call. Shagaf was 4th at the second call. He was the only horse on the card that closed all day. That has to count for something.
In his first three starts Shagaf was 1 1/2 lengths off a 46:4 opening half, a neck behind a 46:4 half, and 2 lengths behind a 47 flat half. In the Wood he was 11 lengths off a 46:4 half.......One of these things doesn't seem to fit....Ortiz was pushing him from the word go and getting no response. It's way too bad to believe. How does he suddenly get 2 seconds slower than his previous three starts through the first half mile? I get that his pedigree suggests he should like the mud, but empirical evidence suggests to me that he doesn't. It's Occam's Razor bro, the most logical explanation is that he hated the mud.
So, that's once again my case for Shagaf. Look, I get it, he's not fast. But, against a slow group I think he has much more reason to improve than most. You say Exaggerator only had one real chance to run fast? I would claim that Shagaf has never really had a legit opportunity to run his best.
So, you know where my head is right now. I've basically got the group I could use as top horses narrowed down to Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Destin, and Shagaf. Mor Spirit could sneak into that discussion for me. But, right now, I can't see anything else I'm really wanting to use as an A or B (unless we have to use Nyquist as a B on talent alone...or we decide we like one of these closers more than all the other closers that look exactly alike).
Obviously, I know you disagree on Shagaf. Is there something else you like that I haven't picked up on?
I get that his "bad" Wood Memorial was as fast as his Gotham win. But, that win was pretty good and was only his third start. He got in some tight spots there and ran down a decent lone speed horse on a track that carried everything home on the lead. EIGHT of the ten races on the card were won wire to wire. The other race was won by a horse that was second at the 2nd call. Shagaf was 4th at the second call. He was the only horse on the card that closed all day. That has to count for something.
In his first three starts Shagaf was 1 1/2 lengths off a 46:4 opening half, a neck behind a 46:4 half, and 2 lengths behind a 47 flat half. In the Wood he was 11 lengths off a 46:4 half.......One of these things doesn't seem to fit....Ortiz was pushing him from the word go and getting no response. It's way too bad to believe. How does he suddenly get 2 seconds slower than his previous three starts through the first half mile? I get that his pedigree suggests he should like the mud, but empirical evidence suggests to me that he doesn't. It's Occam's Razor bro, the most logical explanation is that he hated the mud.
So, that's once again my case for Shagaf. Look, I get it, he's not fast. But, against a slow group I think he has much more reason to improve than most. You say Exaggerator only had one real chance to run fast? I would claim that Shagaf has never really had a legit opportunity to run his best.
So, you know where my head is right now. I've basically got the group I could use as top horses narrowed down to Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Destin, and Shagaf. Mor Spirit could sneak into that discussion for me. But, right now, I can't see anything else I'm really wanting to use as an A or B (unless we have to use Nyquist as a B on talent alone...or we decide we like one of these closers more than all the other closers that look exactly alike).
Obviously, I know you disagree on Shagaf. Is there something else you like that I haven't picked up on?
Derby 2016 Discussion - Phil - Part 7 - Freaking Shagaf?!
Oh you would like to lighten things up, but now I have to actually think about Shagaf first. Freaking crappy ass Shagaf. DRF has Shagaf listed 18th out of 20 on their watch, and that's... about right. You can't just toss the Wood Memorial - where he ran 5th with an 87 Beyer, a speed figure that won't even be good enough to win the allowance race carded as the final race by the way - because it was 1) as fast as his "impressive" Gotham win, and 2) he's bred up-and-down to LOVE a sloppy track. I won't dive into the details of pedigree analysis for the sake of boring people even more then they are already bored, but we both know he has a pedigree to be at least as good in the mud as on a fast track. Really, I think he's a one turn horse and his connections just haven't admitted it to themselves yet. I only had one thought when I read your Shagaf take...
Quick hits on some of the others you mentioned...
Danzing Candy - Agreed
Gun Runner - Agreed
Nyquist - Perfect summation of his chances if you ask me
Mohaymen - Mostly agreed; I'm not sure he really does have "potential" though.
Now, let's talk about Mor Spirit a little bit. Partially, I agree. I can't stand this horse. But he at least runs ok every race. Couldn't he be like Giacomo in that he was knocking on the door for a while, has as much change as any of these horses, and you just know you're going to get a decent race out of him? I don't know... I struggle to just toss him on the crap pile yet.
And I'll admit that I think you're not wrong about Exaggerator, but he did run a 103 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, which is two points faster than Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby and six points faster than anything else. Six Beyer points is about three lengths in the Derby... which can be the difference between winning and not hitting the board. They may have been stumbling home too, but on paper, it's tough to deny that anything else has run close to what he's done at two turns.
Danzing Candy - Agreed
Gun Runner - Agreed
Nyquist - Perfect summation of his chances if you ask me
Mohaymen - Mostly agreed; I'm not sure he really does have "potential" though.
Now, let's talk about Mor Spirit a little bit. Partially, I agree. I can't stand this horse. But he at least runs ok every race. Couldn't he be like Giacomo in that he was knocking on the door for a while, has as much change as any of these horses, and you just know you're going to get a decent race out of him? I don't know... I struggle to just toss him on the crap pile yet.
And I'll admit that I think you're not wrong about Exaggerator, but he did run a 103 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, which is two points faster than Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby and six points faster than anything else. Six Beyer points is about three lengths in the Derby... which can be the difference between winning and not hitting the board. They may have been stumbling home too, but on paper, it's tough to deny that anything else has run close to what he's done at two turns.
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